从马克思到统计均衡：概率论的政治经济学

From Marx to Statistical Equilibrium: A Probabilistic Political Economy

Bruno Theodosio is Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Tulsa. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Utah, where his dissertation examined labor theory of value, competition, and profit rates through a statistical equilibrium approach. His research centers on Marxian economics, statistical equilibrium, profit-rate distributions, entropy and information, and economic planning under uncertainty. His work has appeared in Review of Radical Political Economics and Revista de Economia, and he has presented research on capitalist competition and statistical equilibrium in the United States, Brazil, and Europe.

This presentation develops probabilistic political economy as a distinctly Marxian research program in which economic laws govern distributions rather than eliminate dispersion. It reconstructs a line from Marx’s reflections on statistical regularities, through Farjoun and Machover’s critique of uniform profit rates, to Foley’s statistical equilibrium and the later development of Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium.

The talk then applies this framework to capitalist competition and firm profitability using U.S. Compustat evidence, comparing Gamma, LogNormal, and QRSE representations of capital-weighted profit-rate distributions. It concludes by extending the framework toward probabilistic planning, where social objectives are translated into distributional constraints and revised through feedback and Bayesian learning.

李直  中国人民大学经济学院副教授

时间：2026年7月13日（周一）14:00-16:00

地点：中国人民大学明德主楼729

语言：英语